Sunday, January 11, 2015

Valuing Legal Contingencies

Usually while valuing a business one looks at the Happy path. Its like assessing a new car with the assumption that you will always drive it in perfect weather. Just think how practical is this approach??? Real life is full of surprises which mostly are not so pleasant. One such surprise for a business is costs related to legal settlements. These can run into Billions of dollars. Common notion is that only large banks run into such situations because of the recent mortgage crisis. But even other businesses can run into such issues.

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) is a large Oil and Gas company. Following is an excerpt from Foot Note#11 – Contingencies from its 2014 Q-3 10-Q report.

TRONOX LITIGATION On November 28, 2005, Tronox Incorporated (Tronox), at the time a subsidiary of Kerr-McGee Corporation, completed an initial public offering (IPO) and was subsequently spun-off from Kerr-McGee Corporation. In August 2006, Anadarko acquired all of the stock of Kerr-McGee Corporation. In January 2009, Tronox and certain of Tronox’s subsidiaries filed voluntary petitions for relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (Bankruptcy Court), which is the court that presided over the Adversary Proceeding (defined below). In May 2009, Tronox and certain of its affiliates filed a lawsuit against Anadarko and Kerr-McGee Corporation and certain of its subsidiaries (collectively, Kerr-McGee) asserting several claims, including claims for actual and constructive fraudulent conveyance (Adversary Proceeding). Tronox alleged, among other things, that it was insolvent or undercapitalized at the date of its IPO and sought, among other things, to recover damages in excess of $18.85 billion from Kerr-McGee and Anadarko, as well as interest and attorneys’ fees and costs. In accordance with Tronox’s Bankruptcy Court-approved Plan of Reorganization (Plan), the Adversary Proceeding is being pursued by a litigation trust (Litigation Trust). Pursuant to the Plan, the Litigation Trust was “deemed substituted” for the Tronox plaintiffs in the Adversary Proceeding.

The U.S. government intervened in the Adversary Proceeding, and in May 2009 asserted separate claims against Anadarko and Kerr-McGee under the Federal Debt Collection Procedures Act (FDCPA Complaint). The Litigation Trust and the U.S. government agreed that the recovery of damages under the Adversary Proceeding, if any, would cover both the Adversary Proceeding and the FDCPA Complaint.

In February 2011, Tronox emerged from bankruptcy pursuant to the Plan. The terms of the Plan, which were confirmed by the Bankruptcy Court in the fourth quarter of 2010, contemplate that the claims of the U.S. government (together with other federal, state, local, and tribal governmental entities having regulatory authority or responsibilities for environmental laws, collectively, the Governmental Entities) related to Tronox’s environmental liabilities and tort claims asserted against Tronox by other creditors will be settled through certain environmental response trusts and the Litigation Trust. The Plan provides for an allocation of any proceeds from the Adversary Proceeding between the Governmental Entities and the other creditors.

LIABILITY ACCRUAL : On April 3, 2014, Anadarko and Kerr-McGee entered into a settlement agreement with the Litigation Trust and the U.S. government (in its capacity as plaintiff-intervenor and acting for and on behalf of certain U.S. government agencies) to resolve all claims asserted in the Adversary Proceeding and FDCPA Complaint for $5.15 billion, which represents principal of approximately $3.98 billion plus 6% interest from the filing of the Adversary Proceeding on May 12, 2009, through April 3, 2014. In addition, interest will be paid on the above amount from April 3, 2014, through the date of payment of the settlement, with interest of 1.5% for the first 180 days and 1.5% plus the one-month LIBOR thereafter. Under the terms of the settlement agreement, the Litigation Trust, Anadarko, and Kerr-McGee agreed to mutually release all claims that were or could have been asserted in the Adversary Proceeding. The U.S. government (representing federal agencies that filed claims in the Tronox bankruptcy) and Anadarko and Kerr-McGee also provided covenants not to sue each other with respect to certain claims and causes of action. The U.S. government will also provide contribution protection from third-party claims seeking reimbursement from Anadarko and certain of its affiliates for the sites identified in the settlement agreement.

The Adversary Proceeding has been stayed pending final approval of the settlement agreement. In May 2014, the Bankruptcy Court issued its Findings of Fact and Conclusions of Law recommending approval of the settlement agreement. The settlement agreement is subject to approval by the New York District Court and the issuance of an injunction by the New York District Court barring similar claims from third parties. The settlement payment will be made once both the New York District Court’s approval of the settlement agreement and the issuance of the injunction are final and non-appealable. The Company currently expects this process to be completed in early 2015.

Anadarko recognized Tronox-related contingent losses of $850 million in the fourth quarter of 2013 and $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2014. In addition, Anadarko recognized settlement-related interest expense of $38 million, included in Tronox-related contingent loss in the Company’s Consolidated Statement of Income, during the nine months ended September 30, 2014, for an aggregate $5.19 billion Tronox-related contingent liability on the Company’s Consolidated Balance Sheet at September 30, 2014.

CONCLUSION: If one were valuing Anadarko Petroleum in the year 2005 then there was no way one could have predicted a charge of $5.19 billion that the company took in the year 2014. But what we can learn from this case study that we should always keep some buffer in our valuation for Legal contingencies. One can accommodate this as part of discount rate. If you have any doubts on discount rate then please refer to the following post Discounted Cash flow basics